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Computational Ecology and Software, 2012, 2(4): 198-212
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Article

Fluctuations of population dynamics model parameters: View on the problem of climate change

L. V. Nedorezov
University of Nova Gorica, Slovenia

Received 26 August 2012;Accepted 29 September 2012;Published online 1 December 2012
IAEES

Abstract
In current publication the statistical method of analysis of population time series in considered. This method is based on analysis of dynamics of non-linear ecological model parameter estimations in time, and devoted to investigation of influence of change of weather conditions on population dynamics (on the other words, it is devoted to analysis of climate change from the standpoint of separated population dynamics). Estimations of model parameters were obtained for parts (which contains 12 values each) of initial sample. For the approximation of sub-samples the well-known Kostitzin model of population size changing in time was used. It was used for the approximation of dataset of pine looper moth (Bupalus piniarius L.) dynamics in Germany (total sample size is 58). Estimation of model parameters were obtained with known least squares method. Analyses of tendencies of model parameter estimations showed that there are no reasons for rejecting hypotheses about the equalities of regression line angles to zero. It gives the base for conclusion about the absence of serious change in weather conditions in Germany during analyzing time interval (60 years).

Keywords population dynamics;estimation;model parameters;climate change.



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