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Computational Ecology and Software, 2015, 5(4): 389-401
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Article

Method of extreme points: Characteristics of feasible sets for forecast of population dynamics

L.V. Nedorezov
Research Center for Interdisciplinary Environmental Cooperation RAS, nab. Kutuzova 14, Saint-Petersburg, 191187, Russia

Received 12 July 2015;Accepted 20 August 2015;Published online 1 December 2015
IAEES

Abstract
In current publication within the framework of method of extreme points various characteristics of feasible sets are applied for forecast of population dynamics. Following characteristics were used: maximum, minimum and average values for all trajectories with parameters belonging to feasible set, trajectory with best characteristics for Kolmogorov - Smirnov criterion, and trajectory with lowest value of sum of squared deviations between theoretical and empirical values. Analyses were provided for larch bud moth population (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) time series (GPDD 1407; sample size is 38) and for Moran - Ricker model. Time series was divided onto two parts: for first part (first 21 values or more) feasible sets were determined and for tails of time series pointed out characteristics were applied. Forecasting properties of used characteristics are under discussion.

Keywords larch bud moth population dynamics;time series;statistical analysis;Moran-Ricker model;fitting; forecast;method of extreme points.



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