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Network Biology, 2013, 3(2): 67-73
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Article

Network modelling is strictly required for predicting climate change impacts on biodiversity

Alessandro Ferrarini
Department of Evolutionary and Functional Biology, University of Parma, Via G. Saragat 4, I-43100 Parma, Italy

Received 21 March 2013;Accepted 25 April 2013;Published online 1 June 2013
IAEES

Abstract
Robust models are pivotal to the prediction of future climate change impacts on biodiversity. A move must be made away from individualistic models of single species toward the implication of synergistically interacting species. The focus should be on the indirect effects due to biotic interactions. Thanks to these kinds of models, counterintuitive results for species could be achieved, emerging from complex biotic feedbacks involving that species-specific expectations are not of necessity consistent with those of their community. In this paper, the proposed approaches can tackle some important limitations of commonly-used individualistic models, as they can: a) deal with an optionally large number of species, b) take into account biotic interactions, c) forecast indirect effects caused by climate change.

Keywords biotic interactions;climate impact models;ecological communities;indirect effects;scenarios simulations.

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