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Proceedings of the International Academy of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2012, 2(2): 70-83
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Article

Pine looper moth population dynamics in Netherlands: Prognosis with generalized logistic model

B.N. Nedorezova, L.V. Nedorezov
The Research Center for Interdisciplinary Environmental Cooperation (INENCO) of Russian Academy of Sciences, Kutuzova nab. 14, 191187 Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Received 12 October 2011;Accepted 15 November 2011;Published online 5 June 2012
IAEES

Abstract
Current publication is devoted to analysis of well-known time series on the dynamics of pine looper moth (Bupalus piniarius L.) in national park De Hoge Veluwe (the Netherlands). For the approximation of every considering sample five various models with discrete time steps were used. Within the framework of every used model the influence of self-regulative mechanisms onto population size changing in time were took into account (and every used model had minimum number of unknown parameters). Estimations of model parameters were obtained at minimization of squared differences between theoretical (model) trajectories and empirical datasets (global fitting) for first ten values. Tails of samples (four or five points) were used for checking prognostic properties of models. Sets of deviations between theoretical and empirical trajectories were checked on Normality with zero average (Kolmogorov - Smirnov and Shapiro - Wilk tests), and were tested on absence/existence of serial correlation (Durbin - Watson criteria). Provided analysis showed that modified logistic model can only give sufficient approximation of empirical datasets. For parameters of this model confidence domains were determined, and for the situation when parameters belong to 90% confidence domain, forecasts of population size changing were constructed.

Keywords pine looper moth;mathematical model;discrete time;time series;forecast.

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