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Proceedings of the International Academy of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 5(1): 38-48
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Article

Application of generalized discrete logistic model for fitting of pine looper moth time series: Feasible sets and estimations of model parameters

L.V. Nedorezov
Research Center for Interdisciplinary Environmental Cooperation RAS, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Received 23 October 2014;Accepted 30 November 2014;Published online 1 March 2015
IAEES

Abstract
New approach to estimation of ecological model parameters is considered and applied to analysis of well known pine looper moth time series (Klomp, 1966). Within the framework of approach it is assumed that before constructing and minimizing of loss-function basic requirements to model and to deviations between empirical and theoretical (model) datasets must be formulated. After that respective statistical criterions must be determined, and with the help of these criterions structure of feasible set in space of model parameters (where these criterions are satisfied) must be obtained. Structures of feasible sets were determined for generalized discrete logistic model with known datasets of pine looper moth population dynamics. Results were compared with estimations obtained with Least Square Method.

Keywords pine looper moth;time series;discrete logistic model;statistical criterions.



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