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Proceedings of the International Academy of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2016, 6(1): 1-12
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Article

Application of nonlinear model of population dynamics with phase structure to analysis of pine looper moth time series

L.V. Nedorezov
Research Center for Interdisciplinary Environmental Cooperation RAS, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Received 25 October 2015;Accepted 30 November 2015;Published online 1 March 2016
IAEES

Abstract
Current publication is devoted to application of ELP-model (egg - larvae - pupae) for analysis of pine looper moth (Bupalus piniarius L.) dynamics in Netherlands (Klomp, 1966) and determination of asymptotic stable dynamic regimes. Method for estimation of model parameters (without using of any minimizing functional forms) when several correlated time series must be taken into account is described. Parameters of ELP-model were estimated, and it allowed creating two following hypotheses about pine looper moth dynamics: it may correspond to strong 2-cycle or non-rigorous 3-cycle.

Keywords pine looper dynamics;mathematical model;estimation model parameters;asymptotic regimes.

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