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Selforganizology, 2016, 3(1): 25-40
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Article

Non-traditional approach to fitting of time series of larch bud moth dynamics: Application of Moran - Ricker model with time lags

L.V. Nedorezov
Center of Interdisciplinary Investigations of Environmental Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, nab. Kutuzova 14, Saint-Petersburg, 191187, Russia

Received 28 October 2015;Accepted 5 December 2015;Published online 1 March 2016
IAEES

Abstract
In current publication analyses of time series of larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) dynamics are considered. For fitting of time series Moran - Ricker model with time lags was used. Estimations of model parameters were provided with non-traditional approach: for every considered case feasible sets of points in space of model parameters were determined where selected statistical criterions give required results for deviations between theoretical (model) and empirical datasets. In all considered situations obtained results were compared with other results obtained with least squared method. It was obtained that Moran - Ricker model without time lag and with time lag in one year is not suitable for fitting of time series. Best correspondences on quantitative and qualitative levels between model trajectories and empirical dataset were found for cases with time lag in 3 years.

Keywords larch bud moth dynamics;time series;fitting;Moran - Ricker model with time lag.

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