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Network Pharmacology, 2020, 5(3-4): 33-37
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Article

A generalized model for overlap infection of pathogens

GuangHua Liu1, YanHong Qi2, WenJun Zhang3
1Guangdong AIB Polytech College, Guangzhou 510507, China
2Sun Yat-sen University Libraries, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
3School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Received 19 November 2019;Accepted 15 April 2020;Published 1 December 2020
IAEES

Abstract
From the same source or multiple sources, the pathogen may trigger multiple infection processes, and each infection process will cause different theoretical incidence. However, some of the previously infected individuals may be re-infected in the ongoing infection process, that is, the previous and ongoing infections overlap. The higher the previous incidence, the greater the subsequent infections overlap. In the total incidence calculation, the overlap should be removed. In this study, an infection overlap model, based on the probability principles, was proposed as the following: A(ti)=B(t1), i=1; A(ti)=B(ti)(1-Ķēj=1i-1)A(tj)), i=2,3,..., where A(ti) is the newly occurred infection incidence in i-th infection, ti is the time for occurrence of i-th infection, and B(ti) is the theoretical incidence calculated. The total incidence dynamics is thus: S(ti)=Ķēj=1iA(tj), i=1,2,3, ... The model can be used as a fundamental model frame for the epidemic with repeated re-infections by pathogens.

Keywords pathogens;re-infection;overlap;model;incidence.


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